Politics & Government

Politics Watchers: Short of Gaffe, Magic Moment, Presidential Debate Unlikely to Sway Iowa's Undecided

Presidential debate schedule: Jim Lehrer of NewsHour on PBS will moderate the debate, which will be on domestic policy. It begins at 8 p.m., Wednesday and will be aired on most major networks.

For political junkies, debates are must see TV. Stakes are high.

“The entire election is at stake in the debate,” said Terry Dahms, the chairman of the Johnson County Democrats. “Romney has everything on the line. Another gaffe and it's all over for him.”

But, even they know, that while some big could happen, it likely won’t.

“I expect extreme caution and nothing really substantive about solutions to any number of problems: national debt, the war, Syria, Israel, China/Japan,” he said. “But it could be interesting, if they would, but they won't.”

Iowa is one of nine states pollsters say remain in play in the 2012 presidential election, but short of a defining moment via a gaffe or breakout line, it is likely to remain so after Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama square off in the first presidential debate on Wednesday.

The debate is being held at University of Denver in Colorado. Jim Lehrer of NewsHour on PBS will moderate. The topic is domestic policy. It begins at 8 p.m. Wednesday, and will be aired on most major networks.

There are local debate watch parties, including at the Hawkeye Room of the Iowa Memorial Union hosted by the the University of Iowa Democrats.

Find out what's happening in Iowa Citywith free, real-time updates from Patch.

Iowa has about 621,000 active Republicans and 603,000 active Democrats. Debates are largely a showcase for people who have already made up their minds, presumably largely from within those ranks. The problem is, Iowa has more people registered to no party - 666,000 active - than either of the major ones, and many undecided voters don’t watch.

“Relatively few undecided voters actually watch the debates,” said Justin Whitely Holmes, an assistant professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa. “The audience is largely made up of partisans who are just watching to cheer their candidate on.”

Political observers say the most likely chance that the debate will shape the election, is if one of the candidates screw up (think John Kerry’s, “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it”), or conversely have a campaign-defining moment, such as Ronald Reagan’s, “There you go again” quip to Jimmy Carter.

“This debate is the most important of the series to be held,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University. “Why? Because its the acid test of how well Mitt Romney can hold up against Obama. Also its the one where neither candidate can make a major visual or oral blooper.”

Still, those moments are rare.

Aside from trying not to make a blunder, the first debate will not be a cakewalk, for Obama or Romney. They both have work to do.

The candidates will be trying to come across confident, knowledgeable and, well, presidential. They each will get called on their white elephants of the day - Romney’s 47 percent comment and the notion that the Obama Administration “leads from behind” on key foreign affairs policy, national debt and jobs.

Obama will try to convince voters he has the country going in the right direction, and he deserves four more year. In this debate and others, Romney must show voters he has the better ideas when it comes to the jobs and the economy, as well as come across as empathetic and likeable, Holmes said.

“Romney needs to do something to shake up the race. He has been trending downward in some recent polls and will need to reverse that,” Holmes said

The former Massachusetts governor, Romney, is the challenger, which naturally puts him under more pressure, University of Iowa associate professor of political science Tim Hagle said. Republicans want to see him be more aggressive towards Obama.

For many casual voters, debate season is when they just start to pay attention to the election, so it could be a chance for both candidates to reset, particularly Romney.

“The debates may be the first time where people have the opportunity and inclination to tune in,” Hagle said. “Others would argue that people who watch are people who have made up their mind. In that sense, it's Romney who has more at stake. He has to prove himself.”


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