GOP Insiders Expect Majority of Candidates to Make Iowa the Focus of Fall

By Hannah Hess
IowaPolitics.com

 Republican presidential candidates are spending September on television, facing off in an increasingly nationalized nomination process, but they will return in late fall to Iowa for a fierce caucus fight.

When October rolls around, "we'll have at least four candidates vigorously participating for Iowa, and we'll see a lot of them," said former Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Rich Schwarm, of Lake Mills, who has watched many caucus cycles and helped with White House campaigns.

Schwarm and other Iowa political insiders predicted Tuesday that Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum will make the victory in the Iowa caucuses the chief aim of their campaigns.

And when the candidates return, they will be asked to answer for issues central to Iowa caucus-goers — economic plans to revive the state's manufacturing sector and the moral issues that are key to many evangelical Christians.

"We're in that period now where a lot of Iowans that aren't political junkies aren't paying a lot of attention," said Republican National Committee member Steve Scheffler, of West Des Moines, who's also president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, a nonprofit that advocates for Christian values and will host a presidential forum Oct. 22 at the state fairgrounds.

At a Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition forum in March, topics included gay marriage and the push to defund Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest sexual and reproductive health-care provider.

During one-on-one discussions with the campaigns, Scheffler said he's discerned that many will come back to the state motivated and knowing "you have to be in that top tier (of caucus vote-getters) if you want to be viable for the future and gain momentum."

Scheffler earlier told IowaPolitics.com that the race is "wide open." He said Santorum and Paul have confirmed their attendance at his group's forum.

Then on Nov. 1, candidates will face a business audience and be asked about manufacturing, an important sector of the Iowa economy that contributes the greatest share of the state's gross domestic product, during a forum in Pella.

Gov. Terry Branstad will moderate that forum, asking questions about trade policy, tax reform and the manufacturing industry. The forum is hosted by the National Association of Manufacturers, the nation's largest industrial trade organization, and its board Chairwoman Mary Andringa, president and CEO of the Vermeer Corp. in Pella, an environmental and agricultural equipment producer employing nearly 2,000 Iowans.

The last time a mass of major contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination shared an Iowa stage was Aug. 11 in Ames. They sparred during a two-hour, eight-candidate debate sponsored by FOX News and the Washington Examiner, prior to the straw poll.

Compared to the flurry of candidate activity this summer, when campaign buses crisscrossed the terrain, Iowa's landscape has lacked political activity in the past few weeks.

"Typically, it becomes hot, heavy and intense right up to the straw poll," said Dennis Goldford, a Drake University political science professor. "Then of course, people tend to disappear for a while, so it's not unusual for us to have the lull that we've had after the Ames Straw Poll."

Since then, Perry's entrance shook up the race as he became the new front-runner, and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty became the first to fall. In the past week, the field of GOP candidates has faced off on stages in California and Florida.

"The process takes place state by state, but the more these independent groups start getting involved, the more people from all across the country are holding events and having an interest in what's going on in Iowa," Goldford said.

The national spectacles also will influence the Iowa process, Schwarm said.

"The tension preparing for them, and the fact that they've become more publicized because of the 24-hour news cycle means these debates and appearances play more of a role than they ever have before," he said.

Also important to strategy in coming months could be Republican-rich western Iowa.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has announced upcoming visits to Sioux City and Council Bluffs early next week, and Paul plans a string of western Iowa stops next Tuesday.

Goldford explained the attention with a quote from Barry Goldwater, the Republican nominee for President in 1964: "You go hunting where the ducks are."

He said western Iowa has proved important in previous election cycles. One of the Republican Party of Iowa's live, televised presidential debates leading up to the Iowa caucuses will be held in Sioux City, in northwest Iowa and is tentatively scheduled for one week prior to the Feb. 6 caucuses.

But Scheffler said campaigning in all 99 counties is still important.

"Rick Santorum did better than expected in the Straw poll because he paid attention to some of these small counties," Scheffler said.