Politics & Government

Florida Move Has Iowa Miffed

Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn was clearly not happy with the decision of Florida Republicans today to move their primary to Jan. 31, meaning that Iowa will have to move its caucuses up at least a month from its current Feb. 6 date.

Iowa Republican Chair Matt Strawn is not the biggest fan of the Sunshine State right now.

Today, Florida Republican leaders moved their state primary up to Jan. 31, ahead of the Feb. 6 caucuses date currently held by Iowa. They did this despite being prohibited from doing so by the national Republican party.

This move will likely mean that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will push their contests forward, with Iowa's caucuses likely landing somewhere in .

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Strawn, as one could imagine, is not pleased. Here is Strawn's reaction to the move.

"The arrogance shown by Florida's elected leadership is disappointing, but not surprising. Equally troubling is to see this petulant behavior rewarded with our national convention. The consequences of Florida's intransigence must be swift and severe, including the refusal by the RNC to credential or seat any member of Florida's presidential primary date commission at the 2012 RNC convention in Tampa.

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"Regarding the timing of the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses, Iowa will remain first. Consistent with tradition, the final Iowa Caucus date will be announced once New Hampshire sets the date of its First in the Nation Primary.”

A long-time Republican operative in Iowa agreed, saying the state will do what it takes to remain first.

"I think Iowans, Democrats and Republicans alike, will do what is necessary to stay a week before New Hampshire," said Mike Mahaffey, a former GOP state party chairman, congressional candidate and attorney from Montezuma.

Cary Covington, an associate professor in political science at the University of Iowa who specializes in studying presidents, said Iowa and New Hampshire will likely work together to stay in 2012 while keeping sufficient space with other state races like Nevada and South Carolina.

"In order to have an impact, Iowa and New Hampshire like to have space between them and the other states," Covington said. "Iowa will likely just wait to see what New Hampshire does and move their date five or seven days before that."

Covington said there will be some potentially interesting fallout from Florida's decision. Will Florida be punished severely by the Republican party, rendering it meaningless for candidates? Will other states jump Florida pushing Iowa even earlier? 

More importantly, if several voting dates are compressed together, will that diminish the importance of any one early state race in narrowing down the field?

"We talk about Iowa winnowing the field, and winnowing takes time," Covington said. "The closer the dates get together on the schedule the less incentive a candidate has to drop out after a poor showing."

Covington said that despite the accelerated schedule, late comers like Sarah Palin and Chris Christie could still jump into the race if they do it soon, due to their name recognition. 


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