Five Questions: University of Iowa Political Science Professor Tim Hagle

Iowa City Patch asked University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle five questions about the coming Iowa Caucuses:

Iowa City Patch: Several GOP candidates are putting more resources into New Hampshire this year. Is Iowa's influence on the wane? 

Hagle: The short answer is no.  It's well known, of course, that (Mitt) Romney is putting less effort into Iowa this cycle, and (Jon) Huntsman recently said that he plans to essentially skip Iowa.  Each offers reasons for this, but those reasons don't seem to apply to other candidates.  Some have suggested that Romney's Mormanism is the reason, but as Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz has pointed out, his (Schultz's) Mormanism was never an issue during his campaign.

Huntsman claimed that he wouldn't be able to do well in Iowa because he doesn't support ethanol subsidies.  That didn't seem to hinder (Tim) Pawlenty. Plus, lots of Iowans aren't in favor of such subsidies, so it wouldn't be a deal breaker.  For both Romney and Huntsman, the bigger problem is their stand on various issues.  It's not just the social issues, though they are important for many Republican voters, but also economic issues and for Romney in particular, Romneycare.  

Aside from Romney and Huntsman — and a few others who have signaled some interest, such as (George) Pataki and (Rudy) Giuliani, plenty of candidates are putting significant effort into Iowa.  (Tim) Pawlenty, of course, but also (Herman) Cain, (Rick) Santorum, (Michele) Bachmann, (Ron) Paul and (Newt) Gingrich.

Iowa City Patch: How much importance will presidential candidates assign to Iowa City this year?   

Hagle: Given that all the action for the caucuses will be on the Republican side, Iowa City may get less attention than usual until the general election season.  Not surprisingly, most Republican candidates see Iowa City/Johnson County as a rather strong Democratic area and they've tended to go elsewhere; maybe Coralville, but more often the Cedar Rapids area.  We've been lucky so far that The Family Leader chose Iowa City as one of the three main stops for its Presidential Lecture Series.  That has allowed students and other community members to see the candidates and potential candidates they have brought in. 

Some Republican candidates also have a more youth-oriented strategy. That means they will make more of an effort to reach out to students, which makes them more likely to come to the University of Iowa. Ron Paul has been to campus several times. Fred Karger talked to student groups on campus twice last year and Gary Johnson also visited. Newt Gingrich came in to talk to a group from the hospital about health care. Once we get into the general campaign, we'll likely see (Barack) Obama make at least one visit to the University of Iowa.  

One factor in all this is who the Republican nominee will be and whether it appears Iowa will be a swing state and important for the Electoral College. Swing states tend to get more attention from the candidates and their surrogates.

Iowa City Patch: Will the Iowa Straw Poll be the bellwether event it has been in previous election cycles? 

Hagle: It's always hard to say for sure, but it's usually interesting. The value of the Straw Poll is that it's a good initial test of a candidate's organization and tends to weed out the candidates who aren't serious about running. That narrows the field and allows Iowans (and others) to focus on the candidates who are more likely to have a chance. It's also a matter of meeting or beating expectations. The 2008 caucuses are a good example of that. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee seemed to have come out of nowhere to finish second at the Straw Poll and it hurt Romney who had been putting so much effort into his campaign here. 

Of course, the additional attention Huckabee got following the Straw Poll allowed him to go on to win in the caucuses because he was then seen as a viable alternative to Romney.  In the 1999 Straw Poll, (George) Bush really put in an effort for the Straw Poll because he didn't want to allow (Steve) Forbes to get traction. Bush won the poll handily and went on to win the caucuses.  

Several of the campaigns are getting a late start, and some seem to be hinting that they won't put in as much effort for the Straw Poll, but that sounds like a combination of excuse-making and expectations management. 

Iowa City Patch: Which Republican candidate do you think resonates most with Iowa City voters? 

Hagle: It's still a bit early to say for sure.  Each of the candidates has his or her supporters. Herman Cain, who was in town on Monday, is a passionate and charismatic speaker and was very well received.  Tim Pawlenty was the key note speaker at an event put on by the Johnson County Republicans in Tiffin a few weeks ago and did a very good job. 

Michele Bachmann also got a very good reception when she was in Iowa City as part of The Family Leader's series.  Ron Paul also has a following, as does Newt Gingrich.  Even though he isn't putting as much effort into Iowa this time, Romney also has his supporters.  In other words, at this point support is split among several candidates.  The Straw Poll will narrow the field and the remaining candidates should have their organizations in place to reach out to undecided caucus-goers. 

Iowa City Patch: Is there an under-the-radar candidate that you think will do better in Iowa than expected by national observers? 

Hagle: These days hardly anyone is under the radar any more given the media attention pretty much everyone gets.  Fred Karger did a good job when he visited the UI College Republicans at the end of the school year.  He has tried to position himself as the more moderate alternative to some other candidates, but he lacks either government or business experience and has little name recognition. 

Herman Cain has been surging of late.  Tim Pawlenty has been in the news a lot because he has been working Iowa hard.  He still seems to be low in some polls, but I think that such polls under-represent the support he's getting. 

If an "under the radar" candidate appears, it might very well be someone who hasn't even decided to run yet, or who has indicated that he or she isn't interested.  A few folks have indicated that they might get into the race if the voters aren't getting behind any of the current field.  It's doubtful that this would be (Chris) Christie or (Mitch) Daniels, but others such as Paul Ryan or John Thune might reconsider.