Briefly an Iowa Winner, Now a National Loser? Even Some Bachmann Home Supporters Doubt Her

Sheila Reiland, a retired nurse who lives in Iowa City, says she is convinced that Rep. Michele Bachmann is the best Republican candidate for president.

But can Bachmann win the Republican nomination?

That, she's not so sure about.

"Actually I've never thought that her chances were good to win," Reiland said. "I think it's possible, and I hope that she does, but I'm not supporting her with the idea that she has a good chance of winning."

Reiland and other Bachmann supporters like her are hoping their favorite candidate can weather slipping national poll numbers to reclaim the momentum that she had -- ever so briefly -- when she won the Iowa Straw Poll in August.

And Bachmann is apparently thinking the same: Win Iowa again, get attention again.

Since her Straw Poll win, Bachmann's national polling has caved with campaign missteps and the arrival of another conservative favorite, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who stole her thunder by announcing his presidency on the very same day as her Iowa Straw Poll win.

Worse, Bachmann's former campaign manager Ed Rollins recently told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell that Bachmann does not have the financial resources to compete in multiple states like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Perry do.

"She doesn't have the ability or the resources to go beyond Iowa at this point in time," Rollins said.

As if to signify her complete reversal of fortune, Bachmann finished last in the Florida Straw Poll held on Saturday.

Nowhere to go but up

Now, whether by necessity or as a purposeful campaign strategy, it appears as if Bachmann's campaign will be focusing on fighting her way back to the top in Iowa, in hopes that a good finish in the state's caucuses this winter can propel her back into the running in later states.

In other words, Iowans are going to be seeing a lot of Michele Bachmann in the next few months.

In the last few weeks in Iowa, Bachmann attended the University of Iowa versus Iowa State University rivalry football game, sliced raw meat in Des Moines and toured a factory in Sheffield. Monday, on the heels of the Florida results, she in Cedar Rapids.

In Cedar Rapids, Bachmann emphasized her conservative credentials, beseeching the crowd not to settle for a moderate Republican candidate when a conservative Republican can beat President Obama.

“This message has to be driven home by conservatives. We can’t settle,” Bachmann said. “We can’t settle. We have to have a candidate who has it all.”

Poll numbers may indicate why this Iowa strategy is a sound one. Although Bachmann is currently polling in the single-digits nationally, she is pollling solidly in the top three in Iowa, with a composite average of 18.3 percent of the vote on RealClearPolitics.com compared to Perry's 24.7 percent and Romney's 18 percent.

Certainly something to build on.

The Bachmann campaign confirmed the focus on Iowa, while simultaneously downplaying national polls, last week in a statement released by spokeswoman Alice Stewart.

“We believe the road to victory runs through Iowa and that’s why Michele will be spending a great deal of time in her home state of Iowa,” Stewart said.

Why Iowa Matters so Much for Bachmann

Tim Hagle, a political-science associate professor and caucus analyst at the University of Iowa, agreed in principle with Stewart's statement.

"For Bachmann, Iowa was always going to be the key," Hagle said. "She really needs to do well here and convince people that she would do well in other states."

This wouldn't be so much of a problem if her conservative base hadn't been siphoned by the arrival of Perry. Hagle said Perry appeals to conservatives while having the executive experience that Bachmann lacks. Perry also will be difficult for Bachmann to beat in southern states like South Carolina (or Florida), even assuming she does well in Iowa, Hagle said.

He said that while Romney's absence from the Iowa race will help her, Bachmann can't afford to lose any more ground by making any more mistakes, such as erroneously claiming that the HPV vaccine causes mental retardation.

Bruce Gronbeck, an emeritus professor of communications at the University of Iowa and longtime caucus watcher, agreed that Perry is the biggest problem for Bachmann. He said Bachmann's main hope is to campaign hard in Iowa and hope that Perry falters along the way.

"The thing that could save her for the caucus is if Perry would put both feet in his mouth instead of one," Gronbeck said. "Perry would have to fade, and largely due to his own fault."

As the going gets tougher at the national level as big donors back front-runners Perry and Romney, Bachmann is trying to raise money using a grassroots approach that could keep her campaign going in Iowa even if national support fades altogether.

Reiland, who has seen Bachmann three times in person, said the candidate could help herself out by playing to her ability to connect directly with Iowans, to help nurture these grassroot connections.

"I feel like she does very well at talking to people one on one, and I do think that's a strength she should take advantage of in Iowa," Reiland said.

To ultimately win in Iowa, however, Bachmann won't need to convince supporters like Reiland. She will have to convince undecided Republican voters like Glenn Patton, a Coralville real estate agent who says he's still waiting for a candidate to speak strongly in support of his desire for a balanced budget.

"We can't keep spending trillions of dollars we don't have," Patton said.

Patton, who saw Bachmann to kick off her campaign, said the candidate still has time to turn things around. But she has yet to tug at his political heartstrings.

"I haven't had a strong feeling yet for any of the candidates," Patton said. "I think (Bachmann) has worked hard at it, I'm surprised she hasn't made any more forward progress in the national rankings."