Ames Straw Poll a Test of Campaign Organization

By Hannah Hess 
From IowaPolitics.com

IOWA CITY — With the largest paid campaign staff in Iowa and the longest list of endorsements from members of the state’s political machine, political observers rank former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at the top of the chart for organizational strength. 

But his ongoing struggle in statewide polls forces insiders like former Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Rich Schwarm to add the disclaimer: “He has to prove that he’s got the momentum.” 

Iowa State University political science professor David Patterson said Pawlenty holds a clear lead in the ground game. 

Pawlenty's campaign team includes 10 field staffers, and a legislative steering committee that includes seven state representatives and three state senators. He also has nearly 40 days of campaign visits to Iowa under his belt. 

"Local endorsements mean connections to local organizations and machines," said Patterson. "It's a sign of viability, on the one hand, because if you're a party official, you only want to back a winner. It also helps you get into the local political networks." 

The Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll will be a key test of candidates' organizational strength. 

The formula for building a strong political organization in Iowa includes carefully orchestrated visits to meet and greet Iowans from all 99 counties, recruitment of a skilled staff to cover the ground in the candidate’s absence, and endorsements from key members of the state's political parties who can influence the opinions of their constituents, political insiders say. 

Or, as Republican State Central Committee Co-Chairman Bill Schickel puts it: "Message is essential, money is necessary and nothing replaces shoe leather." 

Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann quickly rose to the top of statewide polls when she entered the race last month. But she has collected only three endorsements from legislators, and the number of her staff on the ground "changes on a daily basis," said Press Secretary Alice Stewart. 

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, who placed a big bet on his organizational strength with a $31,000 bid on prime real estate at the Ames Straw Poll, has hired six paid staff members to work the terrain, said Iowa Campaign Chairman Drew Ivers. Three legislators have endorsed Paul. 

While Pawlenty has staff on the ground, he now has to prove he has the momentum to translate the energy and interest he's generating statewide, into actual Iowans willing to volunteer their time and effort and head to Ames to vote on Aug. 13. 

That's because political analysts say that creating a bottom-up groundswell to swarm the straw poll and the caucuses still requires standard, on-the-ground organizing techniques, such as ringing doorbells, shaking hands and rubbing elbows with locals, as well as a charisma that inspires voters. 

Faint ground game, not as many candidate visits

County-level Iowa GOP leaders whose ears are closest to the ground tell IowaPolitics.com that Bachmann and Paul appear to have the momentum at this point. 

However, those county Republican leaders also say they're seeing only a faint ground game, even from Pawlenty, the candidate considered to have the strongest network. 

“I don’t see the organizations as solid as they were four years ago,” said Sioux County Republican Party Chairman Mark Lundberg. “There are lots of robo-calls, lots of survey calls, but we don’t have as many staff people on the ground.” 

Pawlenty has visited Sioux County most often with two stops in Sioux Center, but Lundberg said no candidate has been a standout in organizing on the ground there in Republican-rich northwest Iowa. 

Lundberg said that by late July 2007, a network of hired staff for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had been covering the terrain in all 99 counties for five months, acquainting voters with the campaign, introducing him to the Iowans and corralling supporters. 

But this time around, the prolific fundraiser is directing his resources toward a more national effort, leaving an open stratum at the county level that party leaders say has yet to be captured by the other campaigns. 

“We just haven’t had the visits that we feel that the candidates have to make,” said Pottawattamie County GOP Chairman Jeff Jorgensen. “Now that the straw poll’s coming up, they need to step up their ground game here in western Iowa.” 

GOP activist predicts surprise victory by Pawlenty

Yet Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler said Pawlenty’s adherence to the traditional path to building infrastructure could propel him to a surprise victory in Ames, despite low poll numbers and lagging momentum. 

Pawlenty “has followed that playbook almost to perfection,” said Scheffler, who has worked as a paid staffer on four Iowa presidential campaigns since the late 1980s. The campaign veteran has yet to endorse anyone this year. 

Scheffler compared Pawlenty's campaign to the winning effort he organized for Christian Broadcasting Network founder Pat Robertson in the 1987 Ames Straw Poll. With a well-built campaign, Robertson defeated George H.W. Bush, despite the fact that during the lead-up to Ames, “he certainly wasn’t showing in the polls at all.” 

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll showed in late June that Pawlenty was in sixth place with just 6 percent of support from 400 likely Iowa caucus-goers. That poll, taken June 19-22, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. 

However, a poll of 1,000 likely Iowa caucus-goers released last week by The Conservative Journal put Pawlenty in second place with 13 percent of the vote. Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann was ahead with 33 percent, while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was in third with 12 percent. The poll was taken July 14-15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. 

The former Minnesota governor started to introduce himself to Iowans two years ago, hired an expert campaign staff and has picked up support from a wide cross section of endorsing state legislators.