A Big Political Week Coming Up in Iowa

By Lynn Campbell and Hannah Hess 
From IowaPolitics.com 

DES MOINES — Iowa will be the center of the political universe the next two weeks as 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls and media converge for a presidential candidate debate, the Ames Straw Poll and the Iowa State Fair. 

“This is when the flag is dropping in earnest,” said Casey Mills, spokesman for the Republican Party of Iowa. “This is the first time the campaigns will have to measure themselves, both from an organizational standpoint and how their message is resonating with Iowa caucus-goers.” 

Next week’s political events are like “a first inning of the World Series,” said James Campbell, a professor and chairman of the political science department at University of Buffalo in New York, who recently wrote a book on presidential campaigns titled "The American Campaign." 

“Early events may be particularly important in this campaign cycle, because there doesn’t seem to be a clear front-runner in a field of qualified candidates,” Campbell said. 

A prelude to the week's events will begin this Friday in Tiffin as four Republican presidential candidates -- Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Thaddeus McCotter -- are confirmed to be in attendance for a five county Republican fundraiser. The event starts at 5 p.m. in the Clear Creek-Amana high school gym on Friday night.

700 members of the media descend on Iowa

Campaign events early in the week ramp up to Aug. 11, when the Republican Party of Iowa and FOX News host a GOP presidential debate that will be broadcast live at 8 p.m. CDT from CY Stephens Auditorium at Iowa State University, or ISU. The week culminates Aug. 13 with the daylong Ames Straw Poll at ISU’s Hilton Coliseum. 

Seven hundred members of the media have received credentials to cover the two events, Mills said, including a delegation from the U.S. State Department and international reporters from South Korea, China, Italy, France, Slovenia and Switzerland. 

“This is the first measuring stick for candidates and campaigns in the 2012 nomination process,” Mills said, explaining the international interest and the chance for Iowans to showcase their state and political process. “This is how Americans select their next president.” 

Republican presidential candidates have until Tuesday, two days before the debate, to meet the criteria and be included. FOX News is expected to release details later this week about those criteria. The late deadline leaves the door open for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, even though Mills said “one particular candidate doesn’t dictate a debate process.” 

Even candidates who aren’t actively competing in the Ames Straw Poll, like former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s considered a national front-runner but has been a largely absent in Iowa, will participate in the debate. 

"Following this upcoming visit, Gov. Romney will campaign in Iowa enough to demonstrate that he is the best candidate to beat (President) Barack Obama on the issue of jobs and the economy," David Kochel, Romney's top Iowa adviser, told IowaPolitics.com. 

On the eve of the debate, Romney also will appear at an Aug. 10 house party hosted by Polk County Republicans Nick Van Patten and Tommy and Jessica Ghrist. Darrell Kearney, finance director of the Polk County GOP, said securing Romney for the house party "has been a real shot in the arm for Polk County Republican’s August fundraising, and we are excited about hosting the governor who is riding high in the polls." 

Iowa State Fair kicks off in midst of political whirlwind  

As candidates prepare for the debate, the Iowa State Fair kicks off an 11-day run Aug. 11. 

The fair is well-attended by presidential candidates in the year leading up to the first-in-the-nation caucuses. It is a chance not only to shake hands with Iowans from across the state, but a photo opportunity for flipping pork chops on the grill, or sampling a deep-fried Twinkie as U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Connecticut, did in 2003. 

Full schedules have not been released, but already:

* Romney will be at the fair on opening day Aug. 11, Kochel said. 
* Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain will speak at The Des Moines Register’s State Fair soapbox, 10 a.m. Aug. 12 at the fair. 
* Former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum has indicated that he will be at the fair Aug. 12. 
* Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann plans to visit the fair Aug. 11 or Aug. 12, said Press Secretary Alice Stewart. “We’re still finalizing the details, but she will be there,” Stewart said. 
* A schedule released Wednesday by former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty shows that on Aug. 12, he will be a guest chef at 11 a.m. at the Iowa Pork Producers Association booth, will speak at 12:30 p.m. at the Register's State Fair soapbox and will be at the Republican Party of Iowa’s booth at 2:30 p.m. 
* Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is likely to be at the fair, with details to be released in the coming days, said Iowa Campaign Chairman Drew Ivers. 

Kristen Gray, consumer marketing manager at the Des Moines Register, said the newspaper this weekend will release the full schedule of candidates speaking at the Register’s State Fair soapbox, in front of The Des Moines Register Service Center. 

The Republican Party of Iowa also plans to release a full schedule of candidates visiting its booth in the Varied Industries Building. 

In the past, some candidates also have spoken live on the radio from the fairgrounds at WHO Newsradio 1040’s Crystal Studio. However, WHO radio hosts did not respond to a request Wednesday from IowaPolitics.com on whether any candidates have been scheduled. 

“Last year, (Pawlenty) visited the pork stand, bought some cheese curds and did an interview with (WHO radio host) Jan Mickelson on what was probably the hottest day on the campaign trail that we can remember,” said Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant. “We're very much looking forward to doing all of that and more again.” 

It all leads to the Ames Straw Poll  

The busy political week wraps up with the Ames Straw Poll at Iowa State University, a key test of a candidate’s organizational strength, which Mills described as having a state fair atmosphere outside, and a political convention atmosphere inside. 

Nine candidates are on the ballot, including six who purchased space for tents at the event. That compares with 11 candidates on the ballot at the 2007 Ames Straw Poll, and nine who purchased lots that year. About 14,000 people attended the event in 2007, and organizers are expecting a similar number this year. Voting runs from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., and results are expected by the 6 p.m. news. 

The straw poll results will confirm to the national audience which Republican candidate has made the best pitch to religious conservative voters, said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, one of the world's leading research universities. 

“I’ll be watching closely to see how well Bachmann does,” Abramowitz said. “It could be the beginning of the end for someone like Rick Santorum.” 

Santorum has been one of Iowa’s most frequent visitors, campaigning in Iowa at least 43 days in 22 visits, according to Democracy in Action, a progressive nonprofit that provides technological support for other nonprofits. For the three weeks leading up to the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll, Santorum moved his wife and seven kids to Iowa, so he could campaign every day with a schedule that includes 50 cities. 

However, a July 14-15 poll of 1,000 likely caucus-goers put Santorum in seventh place out of nine Republican presidential candidates, with only 2 percent support. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. 

Some political analysts have questioned the significance of the Ames Straw Poll, given the choice by Romney, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich to not actively compete this year. Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll, but spent about $2 million in the effort. 

Romney’s performance in this year's straw poll is questionable because he has chosen not to compete. Kochel said the Republican Party of Iowa chose to include Romney on the ballot, as has been custom in past straw polls. 

“They included John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in 2007, who were both active candidates choosing not to participate in the straw poll,” Kochel said. “They also included Fred Thompson, who was a non-candidate at that point. Since our campaign is not participating in the straw poll, we don't have any thoughts about Gov. Romney's inclusion on the ballot.”