NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Odds Not Looking Good for Hawkeyes on Selection Sunday
As expected, Iowa's loss to Michigan State on Friday has led to most analysts putting Iowa onto the outside of the Bubble looking in.
Writers weigh in on Iowa's odds for making the NCAA Tournament. To summarize, they don't think it's likely. If Iowa does slip into the field as an at-large pick, it will probably be as one of the very last selections.
Of all the NCAA Bracketologists, I think only this guy keeps insisting Iowa is in. My money is on a #1 seed in the NIT. Sure it's the NIT, but still an improvement over the #7 Seed last year, and a good opportunity for a young team. However, if Iowa gets in I'll jump up and down like when this happened.
Here's how they're calling it out in Bracketology land.
Bursting Bubbles (Outkick the Coverage)
Iowa's resume won't wow anyone and as a result I don't expect them to get considered for an at large birth. Simply put, the Hawkeyes were a casualty of the ultra competitive Big Ten and just didn't notch enough wins over the league's heavyweights despite ranking in the top 35 of our power poll for the entire last month.
Iowa (-1.5) vs UVA, Iowa (-1.5) vs Ole Miss, Iowa (-2) vs Kentucky, Iowa (-2.5) vs Boise St, Iowa (-2.5) vs Lasalle, Iowa (-2.5) vs Southern Miss, Iowa (-4) vs Maryland, Iowa (-4) vs Alabama, Iowa (-4) vs Tennessee
Just a brutal loss for Iowa on Friday night. For the second time, the Hawkeyes lost a close game this season -- another of a string of close losses (Indiana, at Minnesota, at Wisconsin), any of which could would have made the Hawks less desperate to beat Michigan State at the United Center. As it stands, Iowa will go down as a very solid young team that lacked the wins (and the schedule) to make a realistic push for an NCAA tournament spot. I'll keep these guys on the page as an homage, and for the minuscule chance the NCAA pulls a reverse Minnesota on them, but yeah -- not happening.
Iowa now plays the postseason waiting game (The Gazette)
Iowa’s argument for inclusion is rooted in wins over likely NCAA tournament teams Iowa State, Western Kentucky, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes have six wins over top-100 teams and finished 10-10 against league squads. Iowa’s average margin-of-victory in Big Ten play was 10.6 points, and margin-of-defeat was 7.4. If you take out a 28-point shellacking at Michigan, it was 5.1.
But Iowa also has several key areas that pose problems for the NCAA selection committee. Iowa’s RPI, which figures in wins, losses and strength of schedule, ranks 78. That’s 11 spots below the worst RPI team ever to advance to the NCAA tournament. Iowa faced five teams with RPIs past 300 in non-conference play. Iowa finished 2-8 in true road games, and those wins were against the Big Ten’s bottom two teams.